We finished a very heavy week filled with all kinds of data:
Fitch downgradeEarnings — Amazon up, Apple downJobs report — wages risingTreasury Yields higher — at October 2022 highsRecord temperatures around the globe, including winter in S. AmericaOil prices rise 6 weeks in a row
The metals are holding their ground.
The first chart shows gold in contango, which is when the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price. Contango occurs when an asset’s price is expected to rise over time.
Gold spot futures closed right round $1957 per ounce. The GLD ETF chart shows it in a caution phase under the 50-DMA.
The leadership indicator shows GLD slightly outperforming the SPY or benchmark. SPY closed down on the week from $456.92 down to $447, or about 2.2% lower. Gold closed down from $181.86 to $180.20, or about 1.1% lower. Stronger than the SPY on a percentage basis.
GLD’s momentum on the Real Motion indicator turned up some, yet remains in a bearish divergence to price. SPY’s momentum also fell and sits just below the 50-DMA (first time it broke that momentum line since March) while the price is above it — that is a bearish divergence in momentum.
The point is, that if SPY falters more from here and GLD rises, this will confirm the first indication of risk off… something to watch for the coming week.
Silver is still underperforming gold and is also in contango.
Silver futures closed under the 50-daily moving average but over the 200-DMA. $23.50-24.00 gives us a good range to start from this week. Above $24 and we would be encouraged to think silver has more upside. And in the case of the next chart…
We would think that SLV could gain leadership against gold, which the leadership indicator currently has underperforming. If so, that would be positive for both metals and a sign inflation is increasing.
SLV the ETF, like the silver futures, closed under the 50-DMA and is in a warning phase. The momentum indicator has silver waning in momentum, so the decision on the next price move for silver could be evident as quickly as this week.
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Mish in the Media
Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss market in correction, oil concerns, and some new picks on TD Ameritrade.
Mish runs the rule over the S&P 500 and key commodities in this video from CMC Markets.
Mish gives reasons why gold could return as a safe haven on Business First AM.
Mish talks about opportunities related to EVs in this video from Business First AM.
Mish and Jared go over oil and what might happen with small caps and regional banks in this appearance on Yahoo! Finance.
This has been a very heavy week with the Fed meeting, tons of earnings, and, not to mention, all of the geopolitical issues around the world. Something that Mish has been thinking a lot about is store houses for raw materials, the places that actually hold every kind of raw material from mining, commodity trading houses etc. Mish dives into the stocks she’s looking at on the Wednesday, July 26 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five.
Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments and outlines their possible direction of travel in this video from CMC Markets.
In this episode of The Breakfast Show from Money FM 89.3 Singapore, Mish makes sense of the recent resilience and worrisome trends in the market, delving on the various factors driving consumer confidence in the face of rising rates and inflation, the impact of A.I.-driven companies, and the ongoing geopolitical risks on commodities and equities.
Mish talks PCE inflation picks in this video from Business First AM.
Coming Up:
August 7: Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business
August 10:The Final Bar on StockCharts TV
October 29-31: The Money Show
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY): 450 pivotal, 440 support at the 50-DMA.Russell 2000 (IWM): 191 is the 23-month holy grail; 193 July 6-month range high.Dow (DIA): 35,000 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 365-380 range.Regional Banks (KRE): Back over 48 looks okay; under 44 not so much.Semiconductors (SMH): 161 now more in the rear view; 150 in focus.Transportation (IYT): July 6-month calendar range high at 259.30, closed below it — caution.Biotechnology (IBB): Compression between 123-130.Retail (XRT): 66-67.40 short-term range.
Mish Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education
